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The Coming Resource Wars
Why water, food, and minerals are sparking new global tensions.
Philip Saparov
November 24, 2025
In partnership with
Greetings, sharp-eyed explorer of global trends,
The next great power struggle won’t be over land or ideology. It’ll be over water to drink, food to eat, and minerals to power our lives.
As climate shifts and demand soars, nations are quietly entering a high-stakes battle for the world’s most critical resources. The decisions they make—and the ones you make—could define the next decade.
Let’s pull back the curtain on the rising storm.
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Water is becoming the most contested resource of our century. From the Jordan River to Lake Mead, demand is rising while supply evaporates under heatwaves and overuse.
🌍 In the Middle East, 🇮🇱 Israel, 🇯🇴 Jordan, and 🇵🇸 Palestine are navigating an uneasy peace over the shrinking Jordan River.
🌏 In Asia, 🇨🇳 China’s upstream dams on the Brahmaputra give it strategic leverage over 🇮🇳 India, fueling long-term geopolitical tension.
🌎 In North America, the drying 🇺🇸 Colorado River basin is fracturing state-level agreements and placing pressure on agriculture and cities alike.
🔎 Unexpected reality: By 2030, the UN warns the world may face a 40% water shortfall, making water rights a potential cause of future conflict.
Welcome to the age of white gold. Lithium powers everything from Teslas to your phone—and demand is expected to quadruple by 2035.
🌎 In South America’s “Lithium Triangle,” 🇨🇱 Chile, 🇦🇷 Argentina, and 🇧🇴 Bolivia hold over half of the planet’s lithium reserves. Chile is now planning to nationalize its lithium industry.
🇨🇳 China dominates over 60% of global refining capacity and is actively securing overseas mines in Africa and Latin America.
🇺🇸 The U.S. is trying to catch up but operates only one active lithium mine—at a time when every major carmaker is electrifying its lineup.
🔎 Curious insight: A single electric vehicle battery requires 9x more lithium than a smartphone—and EV sales are expected to top 50 million annually by 2030.
Rare earths are in nearly everything: smartphones, solar panels, wind turbines, fighter jets. And they’re almost entirely controlled by one nation.
🇨🇳 China produces 70% of rare earth elements and processes 85%—giving it a major advantage over countries like 🇺🇸 the U.S. and 🇯🇵 Japan, which rely heavily on imports.
🇦🇺 Australia is stepping up with major mining operations, and 🇺🇸 the U.S. has restarted several mines—but processing capacity remains a major gap.
🔎 Little-known fact: The 🇺🇸 F-35 fighter jet uses over 400 kg of rare earths—making modern defense systems vulnerable to supply disruption.
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Food isn’t just about agriculture—it’s about power, politics, and survival. Climate disruptions and trade wars are turning staples into strategic assets.
🌍 In Africa and the Middle East, nations like 🇸🇴 Somalia and 🇾🇪 Yemen face famine, while heatwaves and droughts decimate crops.
🇺🇦 Ukraine, a top wheat exporter, saw its grain weaponized during war, impacting food prices from Egypt to Indonesia.
🇮🇳 India recently restricted rice exports to protect local supply—spiking global prices and sparking shortages across Asia and Africa.
🔎 Startling stat: 783 million people faced hunger in 2023—an increase of 122 million since 2019.
In a world of scarcity, some nations are sitting on strategic treasure: abundant, renewable freshwater.
🇨🇦 Canada holds 20% of global freshwater yet uses less than 1% of it each year. It could become a magnet for agriculture, industry, and even future migration.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Amazon basin and 🇷🇺 Russia’s massive river systems position them as future water exporters—or gatekeepers.
🇨🇩 The DRC also possesses vast water reserves, though political instability makes investment difficult.
🔎 Unexpected insight: By 2040, global demand for fresh water is expected to outstrip supply by 55%—making water-export infrastructure an investment frontier.
Cities around the world are facing chronic water stress—a crisis that affects billions and challenges infrastructure, governance, and daily survival.
🇿🇦 Cape Town nearly ran dry in 2018, coining the term “Day Zero.” Today, 🇲🇽 Mexico City is facing a similar fate, with reservoirs dipping below 25%.
🇮🇩 Jakarta is sinking—so rapidly that 🇮🇩 Indonesia is relocating its capital inland, a $32 billion climate adaptation project.
🇺🇸 Los Angeles, Phoenix, and other American cities are rethinking water policy as droughts and aquifer depletion deepen.
🔎 Striking projection: By 2050, 1.6 billion urban dwellers could be living under “extreme water stress.”
Beyond economics, resources are tools of leverage—used by governments to extract concessions or enforce policy goals.
🇷🇺 Russia has long used natural gas exports to pressure 🇩🇪 Germany and other European nations. 🇨🇳 China has restricted rare earth exports over political disputes. 🇹🇷 Turkey controls vital river flows into Syria and Iraq.
As the world fractures into regional blocs, expect resources to be weaponized more often—in trade deals, diplomatic standoffs, and even warfare.
🔎 Trend to watch: The 🇪🇺 EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act aims to secure essential supplies by 2030—highlighting how geopolitics is now resource politics.
From smartphones to supper plates, the real power now lies in who controls the essentials—not oil or armies, but water, minerals, and food.
The world’s next winners won’t just be the richest—they’ll be the most resource-secure.
Know who holds the keys. And stay a step ahead.
Warm regards,
Shane Fulmer
Founder, WorldPopulationReview.com
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