The Global Cannabis Shift: Who’s Leading & Who’s Lagging?

From prohibition to profit—how nations are shaping the future of cannabis.

Author

Philip Saparov
March 28, 2025

In partnership with

Greetings, seeker of insight and shifting tides!

Few substances have undergone a transformation as dramatic as cannabis. Once criminalized nearly everywhere, it is now a multi-billion-dollar industry, a source of medical breakthroughs, and a heated topic of legal reform. But the landscape is far from uniform—some nations embrace full legalization, while others maintain strict prohibition.

Where does the world stand today? How do different countries approach medicinal and recreational use? And what does the future hold for this fast-evolving market?

Join us as we explore the global state of cannabis—who’s leading, who’s lagging, and what’s next.

Let’s dive in.

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1. The Cannabis Pioneers: Who’s Fully Legalized?

Just a decade ago, full cannabis legalization seemed unthinkable. Today, a few bold nations have flipped the script—turning an illicit market into a regulated industry, generating billions in revenue, and reshaping public attitudes.

But legalization isn’t just about selling cannabis legally; it’s about balancing regulation, public health, and economic opportunity. Some countries have nailed the formula, while others are still figuring it out.

🇺🇾 Uruguay made history in 2013 as the first country to legalize recreational cannabis. Instead of a commercial free-for-all, the government controls production and sales, allowing residents to buy from pharmacies, join regulated grow clubs, or cultivate their own plants.

🇨🇦 Canada followed in 2018, embracing a commercial model that has turned legal cannabis into a C$5 billion industry. The country has since become a global leader in cannabis exports and medical research.

🇲🇽 Mexico came close to full legalization after its Supreme Court ruled prohibition unconstitutional, but political delays have kept the market in limbo. Still, with its ideal climate for cultivation, Mexico is positioned to become a major player.

Putting It Into Perspective: The shift toward legal cannabis is more than a cultural change—it’s an economic and regulatory experiment unfolding in real time. Anyone considering relocating to a country with legalized cannabis should explore how regulations differ, from personal use to taxation. Also, the rapid expansion of the industry presents new investment opportunities, whether in pharmaceuticals, agriculture, or wellness.

Surprising fact: Despite legalization, over 50% of Canadians still buy cannabis from unlicensed sources—proof that regulation alone doesn’t erase the black market overnight.

2. The United States: A Patchwork of Policies

In the U.S., cannabis legalization is a story of extremes. Some states have thriving dispensary markets and cannabis tourism, while others impose total prohibition. The result? A fragmented landscape where legality depends on your zip code—and where federal law still lags behind state-level progress.

✅ Fully legal (both medical & recreational): 24 states, including California, Colorado, and New York, where regulated dispensaries are booming, and cannabis tourism is taking off.

⚕️ Medical use only: 38 states permit cannabis for medicinal purposes, though access varies—some have robust programs, while others impose strict prescription barriers.

🚫 Still illegal: A handful of states, including Idaho and South Carolina, maintain total prohibition, where even minor possession can lead to criminal charges.

At the federal level, cannabis remains a Schedule I drug, placing it in the same category as heroin and LSD. But with bipartisan momentum for reform, full legalization seems less like an "if" and more like a "when."

Putting It Into Perspective: The patchwork of state laws affects everything from real estate to healthcare access. Anyone thinking of relocating or investing in a cannabis-friendly region would do well to research how legalization impacts property values, job markets, and taxation. The U.S. is also becoming a major player in cannabis-related medical research, with implications for future treatments and pharmaceuticals.

Trend to watch: The U.S. cannabis industry is projected to hit $57 billion by 2030, driven by state-level expansion and potential federal reform.

Even in places where recreational cannabis remains illegal, the medical side of the industry is surging. Countries around the world are recognizing cannabis’s potential to treat conditions like epilepsy, chronic pain, and even cancer. As medical research expands, so does legal access—creating new healthcare opportunities and a rapidly growing market.

🇩🇪 Germany has become Europe’s largest medical cannabis market, with a unique system where prescriptions are covered by insurance. This has led to exponential patient growth and a thriving import industry.

🇦🇺 Australia has embraced medical cannabis at record speed. In just a few years, over 370,000 patients have been approved for prescription cannabis—one of the highest adoption rates per capita in the world.

🇮🇱 Israel has been a global leader in cannabis research for decades. The country was the first to isolate THC in the 1960s and continues to pioneer studies on cannabis’s effects on PTSD, chronic pain, and neurological disorders.

Putting It Into Perspective: The rapid expansion of medical cannabis could transform healthcare options worldwide. For a person considering alternative treatments, countries like Germany and Australia offer structured, legal access. This sector also presents growing investment opportunities in pharmaceuticals and biotech, as new cannabis-based therapies hit the market.

🔎 Did you know? The global medical cannabis market is projected to exceed $40 billion by 2028 as more nations recognize its therapeutic potential.

Europe has long been known for its progressive policies, but when it comes to cannabis, change has been slow and measured. Unlike North America’s wave of full legalization, European countries are taking a more cautious, experimental approach—testing decriminalization, tightly controlled sales, and medical access before fully committing to reform. But the momentum is building.

🇵🇹 Portugal made history in 2001 by decriminalizing all drugs, including cannabis. While this doesn’t mean full legalization, it dramatically reduced drug-related harm and incarceration rates, making Portugal a model for harm-reduction policies worldwide.

🇳🇱 The Netherlands is synonymous with cannabis thanks to its iconic “coffee shops.” But contrary to popular belief, cannabis remains technically illegal—the government simply tolerates small-scale sales. Now, the country is experimenting with regulated production to address the contradictions in its approach.

🇨🇭 Switzerland is running pilot programs for legal recreational cannabis sales, carefully studying the social and economic impact before deciding on nationwide legalization.

Putting It Into Perspective: Europe’s slow-but-steady approach could create investment and relocation opportunities in emerging cannabis markets. Countries like Switzerland and Portugal may become long-term cannabis hubs, while others could follow Luxembourg’s lead in allowing home cultivation. If you're considering a move to Europe, tracking these policy changes could open up new lifestyle and healthcare possibilities.

🔎 Unexpected shift: Luxembourg became the first EU country to legalize home-growing of cannabis in 2023, signaling a potential wave of reforms across the bloc.

Nowhere in the world is the divide on cannabis more extreme than in Asia. Some countries impose harsh penalties—even the death sentence—for possession or trafficking, while others are cautiously embracing medical and recreational markets. With shifting political landscapes and growing research, the region remains unpredictable when it comes to cannabis policy.

🚨 Zero tolerance: Singapore and Indonesia have some of the strictest drug laws in the world, with life sentences or even capital punishment for cannabis trafficking. Even small amounts can lead to severe jail time, making these countries among the riskiest places for cannabis use.

🌱 Emerging markets: Thailand made headlines as the first Asian nation to legalize medical cannabis in 2018 and later decriminalized recreational use. But after an initial boom, political shifts may bring tighter restrictions again, leaving businesses and consumers in limbo.

Putting It Into Perspective: Anyone considering travel, relocation, or investment in the region should really get a thorough understanding of the local cannabis laws. While some markets, like Thailand, may offer opportunities in cannabis tourism or wellness industries, others remain strictly off-limits—with severe consequences for even minor offenses.

🔎 Surprising contrast: Japan has some of the toughest anti-cannabis laws globally, yet it is quietly investing in CBD-based pharmaceutical research—suggesting that while recreational use remains taboo, medical applications could have a future in the region.

Latin America, with its ideal climate for cannabis cultivation, is uniquely positioned to become a global powerhouse in the industry. While Uruguay was the first to legalize recreational cannabis, other nations are taking gradual but significant steps toward reform—some focusing on medical access, others eyeing economic potential. The region’s combination of progressive policies, strong export potential, and legal gray areas makes it a space to watch.

🇨🇴 Colombia permits medical cannabis but has yet to approve full recreational use. However, it remains one of the largest legal cannabis exporters, supplying international markets with high-quality, low-cost production.

🇦🇷 Argentina has decriminalized personal cannabis use and continues to expand access to medical marijuana, laying the groundwork for broader legalization in the future.

🇧🇷 Brazil still has strict cannabis laws, but court rulings are gradually shifting in favor of medical access—a sign that change could be on the horizon.

Putting It Into Perspective: Latin America’s growing role in the global cannabis supply chain could create investment opportunities, particularly in cultivation, exports, and medical research. For someone considering a move to the region – laws are evolving, and understanding the fine line between decriminalization, medical use, and full legalization is crucial.

🔎 Trend to watch: The Latin American cannabis industry is projected to hit $9 billion by 2027, thanks to its ideal growing conditions and low production costs.

7. The Future of Cannabis: Where Are We Headed?

What was once a counterculture taboo is now a global industry on the rise. As more countries embrace legalization and medical research expands, cannabis is transitioning from a niche market to a mainstream economic force. The next decade could bring major policy shifts, scientific breakthroughs, and new investment frontiers—but where exactly is this green revolution headed?

🌎 Global legal markets: By 2030, over 50 countries are expected to have a regulated cannabis industry, whether for medical or recreational use.

💊 Medical breakthroughs: Scientists are unlocking cannabis’s potential for mental health, neurodegenerative diseases, and chronic pain—with research paving the way for new pharmaceutical treatments.

📈 Investment boom: The industry is attracting big players from pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and even alcohol companies—an unmistakable sign that cannabis is becoming a permanent fixture in the global economy.

Putting It Into Perspective: Cannabis legalization is about more than just shifting laws—it’s shaping healthcare, business, and global markets. Looking at future investment trends, medical cannabis and biotech could be high-growth industries. Meanwhile, for those considering relocation, new cannabis-friendly regions may offer unique healthcare and economic benefits.

🔎 Fascinating projection: By 2040, the global cannabis industry could be worth $250 billion, surpassing the tobacco market—a complete reversal of the industry’s legal status just decades ago.

Cannabis is no longer a fringe topic—it’s an evolving global industry with massive economic, medical, and legal implications. While some nations push forward with bold reforms, others remain hesitant. But one thing is clear: the conversation around cannabis is shifting faster than ever.

Whether for medical breakthroughs, economic opportunities, or changing cultural attitudes, the world is watching as the green wave continues to grow.

Stay informed, stay curious, and keep exploring the ever-changing landscape of global policy.

Warm regards,

Shane Fulmer