The Great Baby Bust: Which Nations Are Shrinking Fast?

Fertility rates are plummeting worldwide—what does this mean for the future?

Author

Philip Saparov
March 07, 2025

In partnership with

Greetings, curious navigator of demographic destiny!

A quiet crisis is reshaping the world. Birth rates are plummeting, and entire nations are shrinking. For the first time in modern history, population decline is no longer a distant possibility—it’s a reality.

What happens when countries have too few children? Who is at risk of economic and societal upheaval? And can governments reverse the trend before it’s too late?

Today, we explore the nations leading the global population decline, the economic consequences of fewer births, and the radical policies being tested to turn the tide.

Let’s dive in.

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1. Japan: The Pioneers of Population Decline

The country that saw it coming—can it survive the storm?

Japan has been grappling with a demographic crisis for decades. With a fertility rate of just 1.3 children per woman, its population peaked in 2010 and has been in steady decline ever since. By 2050, Japan is projected to lose one-fifth of its people.

The consequences are severe: a shrinking workforce, a growing elderly population, and a looming pension crisis. The government has tried everything—from cash incentives for parents to improved childcare support—but birth rates remain stubbornly low.

Innovative solutions are emerging, including increased automation to offset labor shortages and policies encouraging later-life employment. But one thing is certain: Japan is the world’s first true "super-aged society," and the lessons it learns today will shape how other countries handle population decline tomorrow.

🔎 Did you know? By 2040, Japan will have more deaths than births every single year—by a margin of nearly one million people annually.

2. South Korea: The Lowest Fertility Rate on Earth

No country has fewer babies—will it turn around?

If Japan’s population crisis is severe, South Korea’s is catastrophic. In 2023, its fertility rate dropped to 0.72 children per woman—the lowest ever recorded. At this rate, South Korea’s population could halve within a century.

Despite aggressive pro-natalist policies—including cash payouts for newborns, subsidized housing for families, and workplace reforms—many young Koreans are rejecting traditional family structures. The rising cost of living, long work hours, and shifting cultural attitudes toward marriage and parenthood are making it harder to reverse the decline.

Without a significant turnaround, South Korea’s economic powerhouse could face a demographic implosion, with severe labor shortages and skyrocketing elderly care costs.

🔎 Surprising fact: If current trends continue, South Korea’s population could shrink from 52 million today to under 30 million by 2100—a decline of nearly 45%.

Can the world’s most populous nation avoid a demographic disaster?

China ended its controversial one-child policy in 2016, but the damage was already done. Fertility rates remain at 1.2 children per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1. In 2022, China’s population shrunk for the first time in six decades—a trend that’s only expected to accelerate.

The economic consequences are profound. China’s labor force is shrinking while its elderly population is exploding. By 2050, nearly 40% of Chinese citizens will be over 60, creating a pension and healthcare crisis.

Beijing is scrambling to reverse the decline with incentives like extended parental leave, housing subsidies, and even state-sponsored matchmaking events. But deep-rooted social factors—rising living costs, demanding work culture, and shifting family values—continue to suppress birth rates.

🔎 Big picture: By 2100, China could fall from 1.4 billion people to under 800 million, losing its status as the world’s most populous country.

The continent where birth rates are falling the fastest.

Europe’s birth rates have been below replacement level for decades, but some nations are particularly vulnerable.

🇮🇹 Italy has one of the world’s lowest fertility rates at 1.2 children per woman. Its population is projected to shrink from 59 million today to 47 million by 2070. Rural towns are already offering houses for €1 to attract new residents.

🇪🇸 Spain faces a similar fate, with a fertility rate of 1.3 and an aging workforce. By 2050, Spain’s population could contract by nearly 5 million people, further straining its economy.

🇩🇪 Germany has long relied on immigration to offset its declining birth rate, but even with these measures, it’s projected to lose 10 million people by 2100.

🔎 Fascinating insight: By 2050, one in three Italians will be over 65—creating a severe labor shortage that could cripple the economy.

While some shrink, others boom—who’s still expanding?

While much of the world faces population decline, some nations are still growing at breakneck speed.

🇳🇬 Nigeria is projected to surpass the United States as the world’s third-most populous country by 2050, thanks to its high fertility rate of 5.3 children per woman.

🇪🇹 Ethiopia remains one of Africa’s fastest-growing nations, with a population expected to reach 200 million by 2050.

🇵🇰 Pakistan continues to grow, though at a slower pace, with a fertility rate of 3.3 children per woman.

🔎 Prediction: By 2100, over half of global population growth will come from just eight countries—all in Africa and Asia.

What happens when too few babies are born?

A declining population doesn’t just mean fewer people—it means shrinking economies, aging workforces, and social safety nets under immense strain. Some potential consequences include:

Labor shortages: Fewer workers mean lower productivity and economic stagnation. Pension crises: Fewer young workers paying into retirement systems could cause financial collapse. Housing market shifts: More elderly homeowners and fewer young buyers could lead to real estate downturns.

Some countries, like Canada and Australia, are aggressively increasing immigration to offset population decline, while others, like Hungary, are doubling down on pro-natalist policies. The question remains: which approach will work?

🔎 Future outlook: By 2100, nearly 90 countries will have shrinking populations, fundamentally reshaping global power dynamics.

How far will governments go to encourage births?

Desperate to reverse population decline, some nations are testing extreme measures:

🇭🇺 Hungary offers massive tax breaks for families with three or more children—some mothers even receive lifetime tax exemption.

🇸🇬 Singapore pays parents nearly $14,000 per child in direct cash incentives.

🇩🇰 Denmark launched a national campaign urging couples to "Do It for Denmark" to boost birth rates.

Despite these efforts, cultural shifts and economic realities mean most young adults aren’t rushing to have larger families. Whether these policies will work—or if humanity is simply moving toward a smaller future—is still an open question.

🔎 Provocative thought: Could artificial wombs and extended reproductive lifespans change the game for fertility rates in the coming decades?

The global baby bust isn’t just about numbers—it’s about the future of economies, societies, and even global influence. While some countries fight to reverse the trend, others may embrace a world with fewer people.

Whatever happens, one thing is certain: population shifts will shape the next century in ways we’re only beginning to understand.

Stay curious, stay informed, and keep exploring the world’s unfolding demographic story.

Warm regards,

Shane Fulmer